AGP Executive Report

El Niño & Flood Preparedness: Somalia’s Disaster Management Agency and Deputy PM Jibril Abdirashid Haji Abdi pushed early action and a coordinated 2026-2027 El Niño plan, stressing evacuation, shelters, healthcare, protection, and support for Jubba and Shabelle river communities. Food Crisis Warning: Save the Children warns a “Super” El Niño could drive acute hunger for millions across East and Southern Africa, with Somalia flagged for flood-linked risks. Trade & Local Industry: Somalia seeks to cut reliance on nearly $9bn in annual imports, urging investment, infrastructure, and a better business climate to expand domestic manufacturing. UN Engagement: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attended the UN General Assembly opening in New York, set to outline security, state-building, and development priorities. South West Politics: A peace council in Nairobi began mediation between Madobe and Laftagareen, starting with a ceasefire push. Security & Extremism: Somalia-linked reporting also highlights arrests over Islamic State propaganda abroad, underscoring ongoing online radicalization threats. Regional Tensions: Reports say UPDF suspended military cooperation with Türkiye, with sources linking the dispute to Mogadishu’s request to end a Turkish-trained deployment.

Somalia–Health: A Central Mother and Child Health centre in Laas Caanood faces closure as funding shortfalls cut free maternal and child services, echoing wider reports that hundreds of Somali facilities have closed or reduced capacity. Somalia–Security: Somalia’s Defence Minister says Somali forces can resist al-Shabaab even if AUSSOM withdraws, arguing the population and troops will keep fighting. Somalia–Media: Somali journalists report a wave of Facebook suspensions and “memorialized” accounts after strategic communications engagements with the government. Somalia–Diplomacy/Economy: Italy’s ambassador meets Somalia’s agriculture minister to discuss boosting local production, water security, and export-focused farming. Regional Humanitarian: UNHCR warns Yemen fighting could displace another 100,000 people, with spillover toward Djibouti and Somalia. El Niño Risks: Mogadishu flash floods and broader East Africa dry-spell warnings raise pressure on Somalia’s El Niño preparedness plans.

Yemen Displacement: UNHCR says fighting is driving a rapidly growing displacement crisis, with more than 130,000 people fleeing since early September; Taiz is the epicentre, and most displaced are women and children. Somalia Humanitarian Pressure: Pope Leo XIV appealed for more international aid as violence and extreme weather worsen Somalia’s crisis, with UNICEF warning millions need urgent help and many children face acute malnutrition. Somalia Health Preparedness: Somalia’s Ministry of Health and WHO-backed partners completed a 3-day Ebola readiness simulation in Mogadishu to test detection, reporting, and response across the federal system. Somalia-Türkiye Relations: Türkiye’s disinformation center denied claims of new visa restrictions for Turkish citizens, saying travel rules remain unchanged; Ankara has deepened ties with Mogadishu through aid, investment, and security cooperation. Climate Risk in the Horn: IGAD warns El Niño-linked dry spells are worsening drought across northern East Africa, threatening crops, pasture, and water—hitting Somalia among other countries. Ethiopia Regional Instability: Seven Ethiopian rebel groups formed an “Alliance for Survival” to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, raising fears of renewed large-scale conflict.

Humanitarian Alarm: Pope Leo XIV renewed his appeal for international aid as Somalia’s violence and extreme weather worsen conditions for women and children, citing millions needing urgent help and severe malnutrition. Disaster Preparedness: Somalia’s disaster agency chief visited Baidoa to boost coordination with South West state ahead of Super El Niño risks, focusing on contingency planning for floods and other emergencies. Health Security: Somalia concluded a 3-day Ebola readiness simulation in Mogadishu to test detection, reporting, and response across federal and state levels, with WHO support. Security Tensions: Puntland intercepted over 100 recruits in Galkayo reportedly heading to a federal training camp, highlighting fresh friction between Puntland and Somalia’s federal authorities. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt’s El-Sisi met CIA Director John Ratcliffe, reaffirming support for Somalia’s security and sovereignty and rejecting any infringement. International Support: The U.S. opened a new USO center in Kismayo to support troops with morale and recreation.

Somalia Security & AUSSOM Uncertainty: Somalia’s Defense Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi says Somali forces can resist al-Shabab even if AUSSOM withdraws, while the U.S. has agreed to give the UN another year to wind down logistical support—leaving long-term funding unclear. Humanitarian Crisis: Pope Leo XIV appealed for international aid as violence and extreme weather worsen Somalia’s emergency, citing severe hunger and acute malnutrition; UNICEF says millions need urgent help. Federal vs Puntland Tensions: Puntland forces intercepted two trucks carrying over 100 recruits headed to a federal training camp in Galkayo, escalating a flashpoint over recruitment and control. Women’s Protection in Conflict: Somalia’s army chief signed an order to prevent and respond to violence against women during armed conflict, with clearer reporting and accountability steps. Economy & Resources: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said uranium, lithium, and cobalt deposits have been confirmed, as Somalia pushes investment and development financing. Kismayo USO Support: The U.S. opened a new USO center in Kismayo to boost troop morale with internet, games, and rest space. El Niño Preparedness: South West State leaders stepped up El Niño flood preparations, coordinating supplies, public awareness, and emergency response.

Humanitarian Diplomacy: Qatar Red Crescent Society and the University of Geneva’s humanitarian studies centre launched a five-day workshop on “Health Humanitarian Diplomacy,” focusing on rebuilding health systems after war. Humanitarian Crisis in Somalia: Pope Leo XIV urged international support for Somalia, saying violence and extreme weather are worsening conditions for women and children, as UN agencies report severe needs. Security and Rights: Somalia’s army chief signed an order to prevent and respond to violence against women during armed conflict, setting clearer duties for reporting and accountability. El Niño Preparedness: South West state leaders in Baidoa met a ministerial committee to speed up contingency plans, stockpiles, and coordination to reduce flood risks. Economy and Investment: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Somalia has confirmed deposits of uranium, lithium and cobalt, while also calling for stronger institutions and security to attract investment. National ID Drive: NIRA says it has registered over 1.5 million citizens since 2023, aiming for 15 million by 2029. Piracy Focus: Somalia’s Lower House speaker warned piracy is damaging the economy and urged stronger enforcement and coast guard capacity.

Somalia-EU Diplomacy: Mogadishu received the EU’s newly appointed ambassador, with Somalia’s deputy foreign minister saying cooperation should deepen across peace and security, governance, trade and development. Central Bank & Digital Payments: A new analysis urges Somalia to strengthen the Central Bank of Somalia and reduce reliance on any single mobile-money platform to protect financial stability as digital payments grow. National ID Drive: NIRA says it has registered over 1.5 million citizens since 2023, aiming for 15 million by 2029, with data protection stressed and ID registration inside Somalia described as free. Piracy & Maritime Security: Somalia’s Lower House speaker warned piracy is damaging the economy and international confidence, calling for stronger enforcement, coast guard capacity and better prosecution. Investment Push: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud says Somalia must attract investment by improving security, rule of law and a predictable business environment, while boosting domestic production and exports. Somaliland Security Measures: Somaliland banned armed mobilization and weapon carrying in Awdal and Selel after 2 p.m., following renewed tensions. Regional Security Talks: Egypt’s Sisi met CIA chief John Ratcliffe, discussing Gaza, Iran, Sudan and reaffirming Egypt’s rejection of any infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty.

Qur’an & Orphans: Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre praised three Qatar Charity-sponsored Somali orphans who swept the top three spots in Qatar’s Sheikh Jassim bin Mohammed bin Thani Quran Competition, with winners Abdulghani Abdulqadir Sheikh Hussein (1st), Abdulrahman Qasim Mohammed (2nd) and Abdulrahman Ahmed Mahmoud (3rd), and said they will receive free education. EU Diplomacy: Mogadishu received credentials of the EU’s new ambassador, Laszlo Mathe, as Somalia pledged deeper cooperation on peace and security, governance, trade and development. Security Transition: International Crisis Group warns Somalia’s security architecture is nearing a turning point as the UN/AU support drawdown approaches, raising the question of whether Somali forces can take over before key logistics end. Climate & Floods: Somalia is pushing climate priorities at UNEP while El Niño-linked flash floods disrupt services in Mogadishu and heighten storm risks. Regional Conflict Impact: UN agencies report over 112,000 displaced in Yemen and thousands fleeing toward Djibouti, adding pressure to Horn of Africa humanitarian systems. Media & Community: Veteran Somali journalist Mohamed Aweys Mudey was killed in Germany, prompting condolences from Somalia’s Ministry of Information.

Maritime Security & Piracy: Piracy off Somalia’s coast is at its highest regional level since 2013, with about 20 attacks recorded since January, as US-Iran tensions and reduced naval deterrence push pirates to exploit a more profitable, riskier shipping environment. Local Violence: Former Somali prison chief Gen. Mahad Abdirahman Shub survived a reported drone strike on his Doolow residence in Gedo, saying two missiles hit the section where he slept and left four civilians injured. Security Transition: The US has agreed to give the UN another year to wind down Somalia support, but analysts warn Somalia’s forces may not be ready as UNSOS and AUSSOM drawdown approaches. Climate & Resilience: Somalia highlighted climate priorities at a UNEP meeting, including water management and long-term risk reduction, as El Niño-linked storms threaten. Humanitarian Spillover: Renewed Yemen fighting has displaced over 112,000 people inside Yemen and nearly 3,000 have fled by sea to Djibouti, raising pressure across the Horn. Media: Veteran Somali journalist Mohamed Aweys Mudey was killed in Germany, prompting condolences from Somalia’s Ministry of Information.

Security Transition: Somalia is bracing for a new security order as multilateral missions that backed the fight against al-Shabaab near the end of their run, with UN support and AU logistics facing uncertainty after a looming drawdown. Humanitarian Pressure on the Horn: Renewed Yemen fighting has displaced at least 112,000 people inside Yemen and pushed nearly 3,000 more to Djibouti by sea, adding strain to already stretched services. Red Sea Shipping Shock: As Houthis tighten control around Bab el-Mandeb and attacks disrupt routes, freight and transit risks are rising fast, with Somalia’s coast and basin feeling the spillover. Local Rights in Mogadishu: SONSA has condemned forced evictions in Mogadishu, saying land regulation actions are being carried out without court orders, fair compensation, or proper consultation. Development & Diplomacy: Hirshabelle leaders met UK officials on continued support and the Sabbuun dam project, while Somalia and Azerbaijan discussed deeper development cooperation. Digital Cooperation: Somalia’s NIRA and finance institutions wrapped up a UNDP-backed peer learning mission to Pakistan on digital identity and public services. Sports & Society: Somaliland women in Hargeisa keep pushing for space in sport despite recognition limits, using basketball as a form of visibility.

Mogadishu Land Rights: SONSA says forced evictions in Mogadishu are being carried out without court orders, proper notice, fair compensation, or real consultation, and warns private deals are muddying legal land ownership. El Niño Flood Watch: SoDMA puts 29 districts across 14 regions on high alert after flash floods hit Mogadishu, urging residents to clear drainage, follow evacuation guidance, and avoid flooded roads. Digital Cooperation: Somalia’s NIRA and finance officials complete a 10-day peer learning mission in Pakistan on digital identity, digital government, payments, and citizen services, with UNDP support. Somaliland Tribalism Crackdown: Somaliland bans public performances that praise or promote clans, saying it aims to curb tribalism and social division. Kismayo USO Opens: A new USO center in Kismayo brings troops bingo, pancakes, and games as U.S. forces train against al-Shabab. Yemen Crisis Spillover: UNHCR reports 112,000 displaced inside Yemen and nearly 3,000 fleeing by sea to Djibouti, straining healthcare and education.

El Niño Flood Watch: Mogadishu is already seeing heavy rain impacts, with the IRC-supported Ariif Health Centre disrupted as Somalia braces for above-normal rainfall and possible river flooding that could strain an already stretched health system. Disaster Preparedness: Somalia’s disaster agency says it is stepping up early-warning and regional coordination ahead of El Niño risks after an IGAD meeting in Addis Ababa. Humanitarian Nutrition: MSF is calling for restoration and scale-up of malnutrition treatment in Mudug after inpatient wards ran beyond capacity and community services closed, sending children to hospital later and sicker. Red Sea Security: Analysts warn that Houthi control near Bab al-Mandeb is reshaping regional rebel dynamics and could raise shipping threats, even as some countries avoid direct military involvement. Somalia-Turkey Ties: Somali elders in Mogadishu praised Turkey’s long-running support across humanitarian, healthcare, education, and infrastructure, highlighting Ankara’s role since the 2011 famine. Digital Cooperation: Somalia and Pakistan are strengthening digital identity and public infrastructure through a peer learning mission led by NIRA officials. Counterterrorism: Puntland and the U.S. confirmed an operation targeting an Al-Shabaab weapons depot in Markad, aiming to disrupt the group’s logistics in northern Somalia.

Counterterrorism in Puntland: Puntland and the United States confirmed an operation targeting an Al-Shabaab weapons and ammunition storage facility in Markad, in the Al-Madow-Golis mountains, aiming to disrupt the group’s logistics and reduce attacks. Local security in Baidoa: South West State leader Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe chaired a meeting on security in Baidoa, ordering tighter coordination and vigilance to protect civilians and maintain stability. Federal economy update: Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre attended the launch of the 2025 Economic Report, praising finance reforms, higher domestic revenue, and transparency while urging continued reforms to attract investment. Press freedom in Mogadishu: Journalist Mascuud Warsame says he spent 38 days in detention in Mogadishu after being tricked into helping recover a government Facebook page, highlighting ongoing risks for reporters. Regional solidarity: Thousands of Somalis held demonstrations for a third day, thanking Türkiye for humanitarian, development, security, and economic support. Red Sea pressure: UNHCR warns fighting along Yemen’s western coast has driven thousands to flee to Djibouti, with over 2,400 crossing Bab al-Mandeb in recent days.

Yemen Crisis: UNHCR says fighting along Yemen’s western coast has displaced over 100,000 people inside Yemen and pushed more than 2,400 across Bab al-Mandeb to Djibouti in days, with women, children and elderly making up most arrivals. Somalia-Turkey Ties: Turkey deported 50 Somalis to Mogadishu, the first batch from nearly 300 reportedly held in Istanbul, as anti-Turkey protests spread in Jubaland, Puntland and South West State. Somalia Security: A report warns the AU mission could be weakened further as the U.S. cuts support for UNSOS logistics, arguing al-Shabaab is “stronger than ever” despite years of spending. Somali Politics Abroad: Somali-born Sagal Abdi-Wali launched her bid for Labour MP in London’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election, after coming to Britain as a child refugee. Humanitarian Focus: African churches and community groups are stepping up support for refugees and stateless people as displacement pressures host communities. Red Sea Flashpoint: Houthis’ capture of Mocha and nearby islands is described as a turning point that could expand Iran’s maritime influence and raise risks for shipping through Bab al-Mandeb.

Yemen Crisis: The UNHCR says more than 100,000 people have been displaced inside Yemen as fighting along the western coast intensifies, with thousands more fleeing across Bab el-Mandeb to Djibouti; the agency warns of a fast-growing humanitarian emergency and says it needs about $14 million for immediate help. Turkey-Somalia Tensions: Turkey deported 50 Somali nationals to Mogadishu’s Aden Adde airport, with protests reported across Jubaland, Puntland and South West State over Ankara’s growing footprint; officials say reasons for the deportations were not publicly detailed. Lower Shabelle Security: Local authorities and Somali forces in Kontunwaarrey District reaffirmed cooperation with Ugandan partner troops to strengthen community safety and stability in Lower Shabelle. Kismayo Development Visit: International partners inspected projects in Kismayo, including stormwater drainage and school rehabilitation, and met elders’ efforts for conflict resolution. Somalia Currency Debate: A policy push argues Somalia should move toward a US-dollar-anchored currency board, but only after reserves and systems are independently verified.

Yemen Displacement: The UN says more than 100,000 people have fled renewed fighting in Yemen, with thousands risking the Bab al-Mandeb crossing to Djibouti; UNHCR warns of a fast-growing humanitarian crisis and says it needs about $14m for urgent help inside Yemen and for arrivals in Djibouti. Somalia Climate Prep: Somalia’s disaster agency and the Environment Ministry held meetings with partners to prepare for the Oct–Dec Deyr rains, warning communities to act early as El Nino could bring heavier rainfall. Somalia-Turkey Migration: Turkey deported 50 Somali youths to Mogadishu, while nearly 300 others are reportedly held in Istanbul awaiting possible expulsion; Somalia’s foreign ministry says it was not informed in advance. Regional Diplomacy & Governance: The US named Devin Kennington as ambassador to Somalia, as Mogadishu navigates election tensions and the fight against al-Shabaab. South West State Talks: South West leader Madobe met Hariin clan elders in Baidoa to push reconciliation, unity, and stronger local governance. Somaliland Connectivity: Somaliland is positioning Berbera as a digital gateway by linking submarine cables to terrestrial fibre routes reaching Ethiopia and South Sudan.